The New Face of Warfare: How Low-Cost Drones Are Revolutionising Conflict

The affordability and accessibility of armed drones empower non-state actors, posing unprecedented threats to urban centres

The New Face of Warfare: How Low-Cost Drones Are Revolutionising Conflict

In recent years, the landscape of warfare has undergone a significant transformation, largely due to the proliferation of low-cost, weaponised drones. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have shifted from being exclusive assets of advanced militaries to accessible tools for non-state actors and even individuals. Affordable drones are changing the dynamics of conflict and posing new challenges to global security.

The Rising Threat of Low-Cost Warfare

Over the past few months, I’ve written extensively about the devastating conflicts unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa, from the ongoing war between Israel and Palestine to the chaos in Libya and Syria. My research for these articles led me down a path I hadn’t entirely expected—one that forced me to confront the stark realities of modern warfare and the terrifying accessibility of emerging technologies.

In examining these conflicts, one recurring theme stood out: the increasing use of drones as weapons of war. Israel, for example, has not only used drones extensively in its military campaigns but seems to treat these operations as opportunities to showcase and refine cutting-edge technology. The world has watched as drones once designed for reconnaissance have been transformed into autonomous killing machines, equipped with artificial intelligence capable of making life-and-death decisions. Israel isn’t alone in this. Turkey has deployed AI-enabled drones in its military campaigns, and unmanned systems are a daily presence on the battlefields of Ukraine.

This proliferation is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle. What’s most alarming is that the economics of drone production mean they are rapidly becoming cheaper to manufacture and deploy. For decades, sophisticated weaponry was the domain of nation-states with vast military budgets. Today, we are entering a dangerous era where these tools of war are becoming increasingly accessible to smaller organisations—or even individuals. In some cases, these weapons can be fabricated using off-the-shelf technology. High-end consumer drones capable of long flight times can be purchased online, retrofitted with larger batteries, and modified to carry firearms or explosives. In countries with minimal restrictions on firearms and ammunition, it’s entirely plausible for someone to build a devastating weapon in their garage.

Even for those without access to ready-made parts, 3D printing offers a workaround, making it possible to produce components that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. The convergence of these factors raises urgent questions about the potential for lone actors or small groups to weaponise this technology on a scale previously unthinkable. The implications are chilling: covert, multi-drone attacks could be launched with little warning, leaving governments, militaries, and law enforcement unable to respond effectively until after the damage is done.

This article isn’t just about the technological revolution that drones represent—it’s about the dark side of that revolution. It’s about the unsettling ease with which this technology could be misused and the catastrophic consequences that could follow.

The Economics of Modern Warfare

The financial dynamics of military technology have traditionally acted as a barrier, limiting advanced weaponry to nation-states with substantial budgets. However, the advent of low-cost drones has disrupted this paradigm.

Cost Comparison: F-35B vs. Armed Drones

As of July 2024, the average flyaway cost for a military F-35B aircraft is approximately $109 million per unit. In stark contrast, commercially available drones can be acquired and weaponised for a fraction of this cost. For instance, consumer drones priced between $1,000 and $5,000 can be modified to carry explosives or firearms, with additional costs for modifications and armaments. This means that for the price of a single F-35B, an entity could potentially deploy thousands of armed drones, exponentially increasing their offensive capabilities.

Case Study: Non-State Actors and Drone Utilisation

Non-state actors have already demonstrated the effectiveness of low-cost drones in conflict scenarios. In Myanmar, rebel groups have utilised inexpensive drones to combat the better-equipped military junta, relying on online instructions and readily available parts. This approach has enabled them to stage attacks with minimal formal technological training, highlighting the accessibility and efficacy of such technology in asymmetrical warfare.

Hypothetical Urban Attack Scenario: The Logistics of a Small-Scale Drone Assault

Imagine a scenario where a lone actor or a small group orchestrates an attack using a swarm of armed drones in a major metropolitan area. The feasibility of such an operation is alarmingly plausible, given the accessibility of technology and the minimal resources required.

Scale and Logistics

Commercially available drones, such as quadcopters, are compact and lightweight, often weighing less than 15 kilograms. These drones can be easily transported; a standard transit van could discreetly carry 20 to 50 units without arousing suspicion. Once on-site, deploying the drones could be accomplished within minutes, especially if pre-programmed flight paths are utilised.

Operational Requirements

The execution of such an attack would not necessitate a large team. A single individual with technical proficiency could manage the operation, from assembling and arming the drones to piloting them during the assault. The use of commercially available drones, which can carry payloads ranging from 150 to 270 grams, could be modified to deliver lethal force. The relative ease of acquiring and modifying these drones makes them accessible to individuals with moderate technical skills.

Potential Impact

The damage inflicted by such an attack could be catastrophic. A swarm of 50 drones, each equipped with a small explosive or firearm, could target densely populated areas, causing significant casualties and widespread panic. The psychological impact of a coordinated drone assault in an urban environment would likely amplify the terror and chaos, overwhelming emergency response teams and complicating evacuation efforts.

Real-World Precedents

The hypothetical scenario outlined above is not purely speculative; real-world incidents have demonstrated the potential for small groups to deploy drones effectively in conflict situations.

Case Study: ISIS and Improvised Drone Weaponry

ISIS has notably employed drones in Iraq and Syria, modifying commercially available quadcopters to drop grenades or small explosives on enemy positions. These devices were assembled using readily accessible parts and minimal expertise, allowing the group to inflict significant damage on more conventional forces. The psychological impact of these drones, which could strike from above without warning, compounded their tactical effectiveness.

Case Study: Houthi Drone Strikes

In 2019, Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a coordinated drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities, temporarily halting nearly half of the country’s oil production. The attack demonstrated not only the destructive power of low-cost drones but also the ability of non-state actors to plan and execute highly effective operations with minimal resources.

Expanding the Scope of Threats

The proliferation of drone technology isn’t limited to conflict zones. The accessibility of high-end consumer drones, coupled with the availability of online tutorials and modification kits, has made it increasingly difficult to regulate their use. A lone actor in a stable western nation could theoretically build and deploy a weaponised drone swarm with relative ease, bypassing traditional security measures.

Countries with lax firearm and ammunition regulations are particularly vulnerable. Drones equipped with firearms, such as sniper rifles or machine guns, could deliver devastating results in urban environments. Given their size and agility, detecting and neutralising these drones before they cause harm would be a monumental challenge for law enforcement.

Countermeasures: What Can Be Done?

The rapid advancement of drone technology calls for equally innovative countermeasures. Governments and private industries are exploring several avenues to address the threat posed by weaponised drones:

• Drone Detection Systems: Technologies like radar, radio frequency sensors, and infrared cameras are being developed to identify drones in restricted airspace. However, their effectiveness is limited against swarms or drones operating in dense urban environments.

• Anti-Drone Weaponry: Systems such as net guns, directed energy weapons, and electronic jamming devices have shown promise in neutralising drones. Still, these solutions are reactive and require advanced deployment to prevent attacks.

• Legislation and Regulation: Stricter laws governing drone sales, modifications, and operation could curb misuse. However, the global nature of drone manufacturing and distribution complicates enforcement.

A New Paradigm of Conflict

The emergence of low-cost, weaponised drones marks a turning point in the history of warfare. No longer confined to nation-states, advanced military capabilities are now accessible to smaller groups and individuals. The potential for devastation is immense, as a single van carrying a swarm of drones could deliver an attack capable of overwhelming even the most prepared city.

As the cost of this technology decreases, opportunities for actors with malicious intent increase. This raises urgent questions about the future of security and the balance of power in conflicts worldwide.

Governments, law enforcement, and international organisations must act swiftly to address these challenges. Failure to do so risks leaving the door wide open for a new era of asymmetrical warfare, where the line between state and non-state actors becomes increasingly blurred, and the tools of destruction are accessible to anyone with a modest budget and malicious intent.

This is a sobering glimpse into the challenges posed by an increasingly democratised form of warfare. As drones evolve from tools of convenience to instruments of destruction, the question remains: how do we prepare for a future where such technology is within everyone’s reach?

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References:

1. The Proliferation of Military Drones

2. How Drones Have Shaped the Nature of Conflict

3. Low-Cost Military Drones Used in Ukraine

4. Houthi Rebel Drone Strike on Saudi Oil Facilities

5. Commercial Drone Payload Capacities and Modifications

6. Military ISTAR Drones and Commercial Adaptations